Commodity watch: Global trends unveiled for OPEC Adjusts, EU carbon plummets, China's cyclamate surges, sulfuric acid spreads

New Delhi [India], February 21 : In a landscape of global commodities, the week ahead holds significant implications across multiple sectors. Here are four key charts to keep an eye on are OPEC, EU carbon market, sulfuric acid and surge in China's cyclamate exports.
In its monthly market outlook, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) made slight adjustments to its members' required oil production estimates, trimming the "call" on its crude by 90,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 110,000 b/d in 2025 compared to January's figures.
Despite this, OPEC remains bullish on global consumption trends.
The group is navigating challenges such as disappointing Chinese demand, high production from non-OPEC producers, and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.
Analysts foresee potential compliance disputes within OPEC+, particularly following significant cuts to African quotas and a new round of voluntary roll-backs for Q1 2024.
OPEC projects global demand to increase by 2.25 million b/d in 2024 and 1.85 million b/d in 2025, contrasting with the International Energy Agency's more conservative outlook of 1.24 million b/d growth in 2024.
EU carbon permits, integral to the Emissions Trading System, have plummeted to 28-month lows, with prices hitting Eur56.39/Metric tons of carbon dioxide (mtCO2e) on February 13.
This stark decline reflects subdued demand stemming from macroeconomic worries, reduced industrial activity, and decreased power generation.
Last year, European Union Allowances (EUAs) soared to over Eur100/mtCO2e, but since Q4 2023, prices have been on a downward trajectory.
Analysts anticipate further weakness in EU carbon prices, with average 2024 prices expected to drop to Eur63.90/mtCO2e.
The broad-based slowdown across sectors like construction, manufacturing, and services is likely to push prices closer to the high Eur50/mt mark in February.
The spread between Platts's Free On Board (FOB) West Europe and FOB China sulfuric acid assessments has widened to USD 30/mt, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
China's sulfuric acid prices have dipped due to lackluster demand, while Europe has seen an increase as consumers seek alternatives like sulfuric acid over liquid sulfur, tightening supply on the continent.
Long-term projections indicate a widening price gap between Asia and Europe, driven by increased metals smelting in the Far East and ongoing decarbonization efforts in Europe, constraining supply.
Mainland China's cyclamate exports rose by 2 per cent in 2023, reaching 26,746 metric tons, propelled by growing demand in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, and Africa.
Cyclamate's cost-effectiveness as a sugar alternative has spurred its popularity in these regions.
Despite a 20 per cent year-on-year price decrease in December, attributed to industry overcapacity, exports are projected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace.
While consumption in Asia and Africa is expected to surge, other regions, including mainland China, may witness stagnation or decline due to a shift towards alternative sweeteners.
Nevertheless, prices are anticipated to remain relatively stable amid prevailing overcapacity.
As the global commodity landscape evolves, these charts offer valuable insights into the intricate dynamics shaping various markets worldwide.