ADB maintains 2023 growth forecast for Asia Pacific at 4.8 pc
Jul 20, 2023
New Delhi [India], July 20 : The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its latest forecast has maintained the growth outlook for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific at 4.8 per cent for 2023, and noted robust domestic demand continues to support the region’s recovery.
According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2023, ADB forecasted that inflation in the region is expected to fall continuously, approaching pre-pandemic levels as fuel and food prices decline.
Inflation in developing Asia is forecast at 3.6 per cent for this year, compared with the April forecast of 4.2 per cent.
The inflation outlook for 2024, meanwhile, is raised to 3.4 per cent from an earlier estimate of 3.3 per cent, but it did not give any reason for the upward revision.
ADB said the reopening of China after pandemic-led restrictions, among others, is bolstering the region’s growth. The Chinese economy is projected to expand 5.0 per cent this year, unchanged from the April forecast, amid strong domestic demand in the services sector.
However, it noted that demand for developing Asia’s electronics and other manufactured goods exports is slowing over weak economic activity in major advanced economies.
“Asia and the Pacific continue to recover from the pandemic at a steady pace,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.
“Domestic demand and services activity are driving growth, while many economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in tourism. However, industrial activity and exports remain weak, and the outlook for global growth and demand next year has worsened.”
In 2024, the growth in developing economies in Asia and the Pacific is estimated to decline to 4.7 per cent from a 4.8 per cent estimate made in April.
Further, ADB has maintained its growth forecasts for most subregions in Asia and the Pacific. Exceptions include Southeast Asia, where the outlook is lowered to 4.6 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent next year, compared with April estimates of 4.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively.
The forecast for Caucasus and Central Asia is revised downward marginally to 4.3 per cent from 4.4 per cent for 2023, and to 4.4 per cent from 4.6 per cent in 2024.
