Bangladesh unrest: Longer the interim govt stays in power, higher the risk of army's political involvement, says Kugelman

By Diksha Rathore
Washington, DC [US], August 11 : Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at The Wilson Center, said on Saturday that the longer Bangladesh's interim government stays in power, the higher the chances of the military assuming a more definitive role in the country's politics.
His remarks come amid ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh, following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which has left the timing of general elections uncertain.
Kugelman emphasized that the Awami League, Hasina's party, is currently sidelined, with no representation in the interim government. However, he noted that if unrest persists, the Awami League might regain favour in future elections.
In an interview with ANI, Kugelman said, "If we have a year or so go by, if the economy is not improving, if unrest continues to play out, I think the Awami League could be favoured in elections. Now, I would just say this as well when we're talking about future political scenarios. The longer the interim government is in power, I think that raises the chance that the army will take on a more definitive role in politics. My sense is the army is not the army it was yesterday. In decades past when it was staging coups and had more of a political role, it has seemed comfortable staying behind the barracks over the last few decades, definitely since 2009 when Sheikh Hasina came in. But with this continued vacuum and with these uncertainties and with no clear path toward an election and interim government that continues to be there, the army is, I think, in a position to, it would have been, by default, playing more of a political role. And we know that there was that period, 2006, 2007, and 2008, when you had a long interim government that was heavily influenced, if not led by the military. So we also should not overlook the potential political role that could be played by the military moving forward."
He added that the potential political rule that could be played by the military moving forward should not be overlooked.
On the possibility of Sheikh Hasina's return to politics, Kugelman expressed doubt but didn't rule out a comeback.
"There's been contradictory messages coming from her son, who has been her chief spokesperson since she left. First, he said she's finished, and then more recently, he said that you know, she may want to return once election an election day is declared. I think that for the foreseeable future, it would be very difficult for her and her party to have a future. We've seen that there appears to be an effort to try to dismantle her party. In the days since she left, several of her ministers were arrested at the airport trying to leave. You've had Bangladeshi media reports citing anonymously Awami League leaders that say they're in hiding and they fear for their lives. The Awami League was not involved in the negotiations over the interim government. There is no one from or partial to the Awami League that is a part of the interim government. So I think that for the foreseeable future, the Awami League is out of the political picture. But in my view, one can never rule out comebacks from dynastic leaders and dynastic parties. And I think this is relevant across the region, not just in Bangladesh," the Washington DC-based foreign policy expert said.
Following her resignation amid escalating protests, Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh on August 5. The protests, initially driven by students against the government job quota system, evolved into broader anti-government demonstrations.
Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate economist, was sworn in as head of Bangladesh's interim government on August 8, just three days after Hasina's resignation.
Kugelman described the political shift in Bangladesh as "remarkable and extraordinary," noting how rapidly the situation has changed. He highlighted Yunus's significant support both internationally and domestically, particularly among young Bangladeshis.
"It's really remarkable and so extraordinary, not to mention stunning, how Bangladesh's political situation has changed so much in so little time, right? It was only a few months ago. It was only earlier this year when Sheikh Hasina came back for her latest term in power. Who could have imagined that she would be ousted some months later and then Muhammad Yunus, one of her most bitter rivals, would be taking over the government...he is widely respected internationally and certainly he has a lot of supporters and admirers in the West, including in the United States. But he also commands significant levels of support, admiration and trust within Bangladesh, particularly among young people in Bangladesh," Kugelman said.
Discussing the future of Bangladesh's political landscape, Kugelman underscored the uncertainties, particularly regarding the timing of elections. "It is very hard to make any type of educated guess about what's coming because there are so many uncertainties. You ask about what will the government look like after the elections...We don't know if there's going to be elections, or at least we don't know if there's going to be elections anytime soon. Theoretically, the next election is not scheduled for almost five years, but Parliament was dissolved, and that means per Bangladesh's constitution that there need to be elections within three months," he said.
"But many in Bangladesh, including those that are leading the government, would argue that these are not ordinary circumstances in Bangladesh. Parliament was dissolved not because the government's term was up, but because you had a mass movement that led to the ouster of the Prime Minister. I think that it could be some time before we see elections," he said.
"The BNP wants elections to happen within three months, which is constitutionally when they should happen. But I suspect that Dr Yunus, and others within the interim government, would probably want to focus on other things first, whether that's restoring law and order, whether it's focusing on...institutional reform, such as trying to depoliticize key institutions like the judiciary. I imagine that some of the newer political players, like the student protest leaders, may want time to be able to form their own political party so that they could be involved in elections. So it's very hard to know when the election will come, but let's imagine they do come, and hopefully they will come sooner rather than later," Kugelman further said.
"I think that the sooner they happen, the better the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) is advantaged," he added.
Seventeen members of Bangladesh's interim government took their oaths in Dhaka this week, with Muhammad Yunus being sworn in as the country's chief advisor, a role equivalent to Prime Minister. The oath ceremony followed the dissolution of parliament by President Mohammed Shahabuddin, paving the way for the interim administration after Sheikh Hasina's resignation.