Certain to lose, Nepal Prime Minister Prachanda to take fifth round of confidence motion today

Kathmandu [Nepal], July 12 : Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda is heading for his fifth round of vote of confidence motion amid the certainty to lose it.
Dahal, the former Maoist rebel who entered mainstream politics after political change of 2006 is taking his fifth vote of confidence in less than 20 months in power.
Majority weighing parties in the Nepali parliament -- the Nepali Congress, CPN- UML (Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist) and Janata Samajbadi Party have issued whip to its lawmakers to stand against the confidence motion set to be tabled in parliament today by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda.
The secretariat meeting of the UML that commenced on Wednesday had issued whip to vote against Prachanda who always has been flipping the sides to remain afloat the government. The largest communist party of Nepal, which stands second in terms of seats in parliament has a total of 78 votes out of the 275-seat parliament.
The Nepali Congress, largest and the oldest party of the Himalayan Nation having 89 seats in the parliament also issued whip to vote against the confidence motion to be tabled on Friday.
Ramesh Lekhak, the chief party whip of Nepali Congress, on Thursday issued notice asking Congress lawmakers to mandatorily be present and vote against the motion to be tabled by the prime minister seeking the confidence of the House of Representatives.
Prachanda is set to take the fifth round of vote of confidence in less than 20 months he came to power amid the certainty to lose it as the parties who announced to go against the motion already have 206 votes.
Apart from the Congress and UML, other parties namely the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (14), Janamat Party (6), Janata Samajbadi Party (12), Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (4) and Nagarik Unmukti Party (3) have already fielded themselves to vote against the confidence motion.
"We have decided not to vote in support of the vote of confidence. The meeting of the parliamentary committee held on Thursday decided onto it," Gyanendra Shahi, spokesperson of Rastriya Prajatantra Party confirmed.
The Janata Samajbadi Party also decided to vote against the confidence motion to be tabled by the Prime Minister late Friday morning. The Janamat Party has decided to vote against Dahal to continue the government formed in Madhesh province in support of the Congress and the UML.
"The Madhesh Provincial Government is our priority. Government has been formed in the Madhesh province in support of the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML so we have decided to vote against the confidence motion of PM Dahal and move ahead with the new alliance," Dr. Saradsingh Yadav, the Spokesperson for the Janamat Party confirmed ANI over phone.
Nepal's 'fierce' former Guerilla Prime Minister had secured overwhelming 99 per cent support of the parliament in his first round of vote of confidence in early 2023. It was for the first time that a Nepali Prime Minister without a special context or scenario was endorsed with such huge support.
Dahal who always had been switching sides either to the Nepali Congress or the CPN-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) came to the state of shock after both the parties forged an alliance earlier this month.
As per the parliamentary mathematics, Dahal is sure to lose the fifth round of confidence motion which will now force his party to the opposition bench which his party Maoist Center possibly hasn't been to.
Despite being the third largest party in the parliament, Dahal enjoyed the continued support of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to remain in power. But this time it only has the support of CPN-Unified Socialist, the splinter group from CPN-UML and possibly the Rastriya Swatantra Party led by controversial leader Rabi Lamichhane. Both the CPN-US and the RSP have 10 and 20 seats respectively. The Maoist Center itself only has 32 seats in the parliament.
A Prime Minister is required to cross the threshold of 50 per cent which is 138 votes as per the present number of parliamentarians. Prime Minister Dahal as per the calculation till Thursday evening has possible votes of 62 which excludes 5 independent and one member each from the Majdoor Kishan Party and Rastriya Janamorcha.
The former Maoist rebel leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal nom de guerre Prachanda came to power in December 2022 when he aligned with arch-rival CPN-UML duping the Nepali Congress with whom he had forged alliance in the November 2022 election.
The vote of confidence on 10th January 2023 resulted in extensive support for Dahal when he got a staggering 99 per cent vote, the highest in known history of Nepali parliament since establishment of democracy. A total of 268 parliamentarians out of 270 present in that meeting had voted in favor of Dahal.
Within 3 months, Dahal dumped CPN-UML to walk out of government again aligning with Nepali Congress and managed to secure a majority in the vote of confidence on 20 March 2023. In the second round of vote of confidence, Dahal got 172 votes out of 262 lawmakers present at the time of voting. Only 89 votes came in against Dahal while one member abstained from voting.
On March 13 this year Dahal took his third vote of confidence where he had received a total of 157 votes in favor. On May 20, Dahal took the vote of confidence amid the obstruction by opposition where he got 157 votes which was denounced by the opposition political parties.
The vote of confidence was conducted amidst vocal dissent from key opposition parties, such as the Nepali Congress, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, and Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal.
The constitution has mandated a Prime Minister to cross the mark of 138 votes to redeem post and control in the government. Dahal was appointed as the Prime Minister by then President Bidhya Devi Bhandari on December 25, 2022 after he showed the support of 169 lawmakers.
As per the constitutional provision, a prime minister appointed under Article 76(2) needs to secure a vote of confidence from the parliament within 30 days of the appointment.
The political course of Nepal changed overnight on 2nd July, after the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML forged a new alliance excluding Maoist Center. As per the agreement signed in between Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba and the UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, an agreement of sharing one and half year's tenure each has been reached in between the leaders.
KP Sharma Oli will lead the new government expected to be formed soon for one and half years and then will handover to Sher Bahadur Deuba for the remaining one and half year's term until the next election.