China increases the temperature around Taiwan

Hong Kong, April 8 : Just like the proverbial frog in a pot, who boils to death after the water is heated incrementally, so China under Chairman Xi Jinping is gradually but inexorably ramping up the pressure and heat against Taiwan. By acting in this way, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is normalizing such coercive behavior against the democratic nation.
PLA activity around Taiwan has been at record-breaking levels since May 2024, as communist-controlled China ramps up the pressure. To illustrate how China is stoking the boiler, PLA aircraft sorties into Taiwan's self-declared air defense identification zone (ADIZ) from 1 January till 31 March 2025 were at record levels. In fact, the total number of PLA flights was greater than for the same three-month period in both 2023 and 2024 combined.
Add to these flights Beijing's use of China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels in coercive maritime law enforcement operations, and nefarious undersea communications cable cutting by rogue merchant vessels, and it is obvious that China is making a deliberate and concerted effort to alter the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
As well as military harassment, China is conducting psychological warfare against Taiwan, hoping to sway public opinion. Indeed, Sir Alex Younger, former chief of the UK's Secret Intelligence Service, said Chinese activity is "a textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment".
Things got even more heated when China conducted Exercise Strait Thunder-2025A on 1-2 April. The provocative wargames commenced at 07:30 on 1 April, as the PLA's Eastern Theater Command deployed forces to "close in on Taiwan from multiple directions". Four key elements were rehearsed: a blockade of key areas and sea routes; sea-air combat readiness patrols; seizure of air and sea superiority; and assault on maritime and ground targets.
On the following day, the PLA announced long-range, live-fire missile drills, and aircraft carrier operations in the Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan. Three broad tactics were practiced that day, according to the PLA: precision strikes on key targets; joint blockade control and enforcement; and identification, verification, warning, expulsion, interception and detention activities.
On the first day, 15-21 PLA Navy warships were detected around Taiwan, rising to 21-23 vessels on the second day. This included the Shandong aircraft carrier task group some 190-220 nautical miles southeast of Taiwan to "simulate strikes on ground and maritime targets in areas to the east". This made the Strait Thunder-2025A fleet the second highest number of warships operating around Taiwan on record, the largest being 27 ships identified in May 2024.
The CCG was also involved. It fielded 4-6 vessels on the first day and ten the subsequent day. Vessels from the CCG's East China Sea Bureau encircled Taiwan and conducted "law enforcement patrols". Furthermore, vessels of the East China Fujian coast guard performed patrols near Taiwan's outlying islands of Wuqiu and Dongyin.
As for the PLA Air Force, Taiwan detected 76 Chinese aircraft on the first day, of which 37 entered Taiwan's ADIZ. A further 59 aircraft participated the next day, including 31 ADIZ intrusions. These were a mix of fighters, helicopters and drones. Of interest, for the first time an H-6K bomber was spotted operationally carrying KD-21 air-launched ballistic missiles.
The PLA Rocket Force's live-fire drills involved "precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities," with these achieving "desired effects". One simulated target was the Yongan liquefied natural gas terminal in Kaohsiung. As well, the 1st Rocket Artillery Brigade of the PLA's 72nd Group Army employed its PHL-16 long-range rocket launchers approximately 250 miles northwest of Taiwan.
G7 foreign ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and USA issued a statement expressing "deep concern about China's provocative actions". They said, "These increasingly frequent and destabilizing activities are raising cross-Strait tensions and put at risk global security and prosperity."
Taipei itself accused China of "escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait," while the USA said it opposed any unilateral changes to the status quo in the strait through force or coercion.
However, China sees it very differently. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, said the drills were "a stern warning and forceful deterrence against Taiwan independence separatist forces, and it is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China's sovereignty and national unity".
There are multiple falsehoods here, though. The first is that Taiwan is under the control of "Taiwan independence separatist forces", a reference to the administration of President Lai Ching-te. Lai is particularly hated by the CCP, even though he has pledged to maintain the status quo. Lai is no more "separatist" than his predecessor was, yet Beijing vilifies him for refusing to kowtow to Beijing. Of course, by constantly distorting the truth, the CCP can paint a target on Lai and justify its own belligerence.
Nor are China's actions "legitimate and necessary". Taiwan does not threaten Chinese sovereignty in any way. The island is not going to invade mainland China. Rather, the problem is that Taiwan refuses to acknowledge the CCP's dream of subjugating Taiwan. China is peddling its own skewed and hubristic interpretation for political ends.
An opinion piece by "Jun Zhengping", not a real person but rather an entity representing the PLA's social brand, was published by the PLA Daily the same week.
It repeated the same invalid points about Taiwanese separatists being provocative. For example, it asserted, "Since Lai Ching-te assumed power last May, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have been gradually escalated. The culprit behind the current tension is Lai Ching-te himself." Of course, this is a typical CCP ploy, to blame others so it feels justified in ratcheting up the tensions.
The op-ed continued: "Within less than a year in office, Lai has repeatedly undermined the interests of Chinese nation and crossed the red line of peace. Last year, in his so-called inaugural speech, he claimed the fallacy that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other, casting a shadow over cross-strait relations from the outset. He is a troublemaker through and through." It is obvious that the CCP cannot accept a democratic Taiwan. Plus it can only accept a Taiwan subordinate to Beijing's communist jackboot.
"Jun Zhengping" threw aspersions around like patty cakes, accusing Lai of being "a true generator of danger" and "a maker of war". The article continued, "The Taiwan question is at the very core of China's core interests. It is an issue of principle that the Chinese government has repeatedly affirmed to the world. We have ample legal and moral grounds to sanction all those who attempt to undermine peace, and we possess the absolute strength and will to overpower any enemies seeking to split our country."
Again, the fallacies presented here are laughable. Yes, China has presented its allegations to the world, but they hold no legal or moral standing. Taiwan is extremely amicable, so it is impossible to see how it is "undermining peace" when Beijing is the one threatening war.
The same PLA writing warned in no uncertain terms, "If Lai Ching-te continues to cling to illusions, misjudge the situation, act recklessly and provoke repeatedly, he will inevitably face complete destruction."
In fact, the accusations that "Jun Zhengping" was wildly throwing around could be reversed and aimed at Xi's China. "As the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities aggressively weave their illusion of so-called independence, every person in Taiwan must clearly see through their malicious intent to push the Taiwan Strait toward perilous conflict for the sake of their own party and self-interest." Is it not the CCP who is intent on pushing the Taiwan Strait towards perilous conflict for its own self-interest?
Remembering that this article appeared in PLA publications, the vociferousness of Chinese warmongering is alarming. What other country so vividly terrorizes and menaces its neighbor? The article concluded, "The pursuit of Taiwan independence is a dead end. We will not tolerate or condone any conspiracy aiming at splitting Taiwan from China. The Chinese PLA has the guts, determination, resolve and, very importantly, the ability to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and dignity.
Taiwan independence means war, let no specific one say he has not been warned!" Things could not be much clearer. The PLA and China are threatening war against Taiwan. These are not the words of a responsible global player, as China makes itself out to be, but of an insufferable bully. Beijing cannot tolerate anyone disagreeing with it, and it is angered by any who deny that Taiwan is a part of communist China.
Elsewhere, but using similar language, Zhu Fenglian, spokeswoman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said the PLA exercise is a "just move to punish attempts to split the country and a firm safeguard for the peace, stability of the Taiwan Strait, and the safety and wellbeing of Taiwan compatriots". Again, it is impossible to reconcile "safety and wellbeing" with the dark clouds of war.
Of interest, strident PLA propaganda - in the form of official exercise videos and social media posts released on Sina Weibo - portrayed China as a mighty Monkey King warrior from Chinese mythology, while Lai was likened to a parasite held by its PLA captor against the backdrop of a war-ravaged Taiwan. The aggressive videos showed PLA forces targeting iconic Taiwanese landmarks such as the Taipei 101 skyscraper, and troops designated to protect the Taiwanese president during a crisis.
China perhaps feels the need to belittle Taiwan, for it has met embarrassment on several fronts. In March, for instance, Lai announced 17 measures to resist Chinese attempts to subjugate Taiwan. These included strengthening defense capabilities and economic security, and collaborating with friends and diplomatic allies. The exercise, and all these public comments, was thus partially designed to placate discontent over Taiwan's continued refusal to bow the knee.
Another embarrassment for China was Taiwan's deportation of Chinese national Liu Zhenya, a vlogger with a Taiwanese husband. She advocated for a PLA takeover of Taiwan, until she was kicked out of the country and sent back to China.
These wargames and accompanying propaganda efforts were thus designed for the Chinese populace as well as for Taiwan's people. At home, the CCP is encouraging "little pinks", a nickname given to young ethnocentric Chinese netizens who are rabidly pro-unification. At the same time, confidence in the PLA is stuttering as more high-profile commanders are arrested and purged, even those once considered Xi loyalists.
Interestingly, China only officially named the exercise on 2 April. In an earlier interview with state broadcaster CCTV, Professor Zhang Li of the PLA National Defense University explained the rationale for not naming the drills. He said: "This largely shows that the relevant drill content we see today is already a new normal, which is commonplace for the PLA and the Eastern Theater ... The reason for these normalization exercises is to let the DPP authorities and the separatist forces of 'Taiwan independence' regularly feel the firm will and strong ability of the PLA to defend national sovereignty and oppose separatist forces!"
Zhang's explanation was interesting, as he equated it with the normalization of such coercive activities. Nonetheless, by the following day the PLA had had a change of heart and decided to give the exercise a label.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, in February described PLA movements around Taiwan as "not exercises, they are rehearsals" for forced reunification. It is a matter of conjecture as to when, or if, China might violently attack Taiwan. A recent article published by the US-based website 19FortyFive quoted unnamed "intel sources" who believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is less than six months away.
That is a more extreme view, but as Dr. Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, remarked: "It's crystal clear what China's intentions are towards Taiwan. They fully intend to ramp up military coercion of Taipei to get them to bend the knee, but if that fails, expect a blockade and a military invasion within this decade to impose unification against the will of the people of Taiwan. Pretending it won't happen is a proverbial strategy of hope and a path to disaster."