China watches from the sidelines as Trump "switches allegiance"

Hong Kong, March 4 : As world respect for the USA plummeted to a new nadir on 28 February, after President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance dressed down Ukraine's leader in a televised White House meeting, the true winners are Moscow and Beijing. The capitulation of the US to tsarist Vladimir Putin's viewpoint is astonishing in its rapidity, and it bodes ill for smaller countries around the world and hotspots like Taiwan.
Chairman Xi Jinping, as well as Putin, could not have dreamed of a more perfect outcome. As Russian state TV observed, "Now everything is being decided inside a big triangle: Russia, China and the US. Within this, the new construction of the world will come to fruition. The EU as a united political force no longer exists."
On the very day that Trump was abusing Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met Xi in Beijing. Chinese state media said the two sides were bringing the bilateral relationship to an "unprecedented high level". Xi reiterated that "China and Russia are good neighbors linked by geography and, above all, a time-tested ironclad friendship".
Xi added that "the two sides should maintain close communication at all levels to fully implement the common understandings" they reached, "and carry forward the spirit of China-Russia relations for a new era, which is characterized by permanent good-neighborliness and friendship, comprehensive strategic coordination and mutually beneficial cooperation for win-win results, further deepen strategic coordination and practical cooperation, and contribute to the common development and revitalization of the two countries".
China never was or will be a neutral party dedicated to bringing the Ukraine war to a just conclusion. Instead, China is reinvigorating and deepening its commitment to and cooperation with Russia.
Nor does China need to do much to advance its or Russia's cause. After just 40 days in power, Trump has successfully smashed transatlantic cooperation and NATO's future hangs by a thread. The US is retreating from the international stage and mimicking how China and Russia behave. For Trump, deals have replaced rules, and values and principles have been cast aside. This is seen in the way Elon Musk has been allowed to upend government departments and programs like USAID. Money matters more than morals or people, while American foreign policy no longer depends on statecraft or shared principles.
In fact, Trump seems more attuned to Russia than to the USA's traditional allies. This is a stunning turnaround, and was evident as Trump and his cronies accused Ukraine of starting the war. Trump, Vance and their ilk have exchanged truth for a lie, fulsomely praising Putin and accusing Ukraine of warmongering.
Malcolm Davis, a Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), commented: "This was just absolutely shameful." He was both angered and saddened that "the current US administration seems intent on a strategy of total capitulation to its adversaries. Where does this lead? I suspect global war within the decade.
Certainly not stability and security or peace. A 'peace in our time' moment perhaps, but the seeds of a new world war are being sown as we watch. Trump is being played for a fool by Putin. He's rapidly destroying any credibility the United States might have left in Europe."
Furthermore, Davis pointed out, "He's sending a terrible message of weakness to China. He's throwing away everything that Western democracies have struggled to protect since 1939. He's tearing it all down and for what purpose? For whose benefit? This is a sad day for the world and bad times are coming."
Trump has welcomed the Russian mafia state onto the international stage with wide-open arms. Nor has he made any demands on Moscow after it invaded Ukraine three years ago. The American billionaire said he enjoys a "very close" relationship with Putin, while simultaneously denigrating Zelenskyy as an unelected dictator, ignoring any Ukrainian role in peace talks, unilaterally declaring that Ukraine must cede 20 per cent of its territory to Russia, and demanding mineral wealth as reparations.
Totally shocking was the US siding with Russia in a United Nations General Assembly vote that condemned Moscow on the third anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine. It is unconscionable that the USA, once lauded for its democracy- and freedom-loving stance, now sides with Putin's barbarism. In fact, the US voted alongside renegade North Korea, while even China thought it prudent to abstain from voting against that UN motion. The US is going against UN precedents, that countries that conquer territory by force should be rewarded by being allowed to keep their gains.
Trump's shameful treatment of Ukraine is embarrassing and breathtaking. He blames the victim of aggression and seems to be prosecuting a personal vendetta against Zelenskyy. What is his purpose? Is it to achieve a peace - one that is unsustainable and achieved at any price - just so he can arrogantly say he brought the conflict to an end? Trump seems to think Putin's word can be trusted, and that he does not need to be held accountable for the death, violence, destruction, torture, expropriation and indoctrination across Ukraine and in the areas he has captured.
Russian assurances are worthless. Bill Clinton marked a reset of US-Russian relations in 1997, and then Moscow reinvaded Chechnya two years later. In 2001 George Bush reset relations, followed by Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008. Obama reset relations in 2009, but Russia invaded Ukraine and the Crimea in 2014. Now, in 2025, Russia is being rewarded with Trump's renewed hand of friendship. The only pertinent question is where will Russia invade next?
Davis of ASPI added, "It's entirely understandable that Europe wants to salvage the transatlantic relationship and it makes eminent sense. But it assumes that the Trump administration actually wants the same outcome. If, in fact, Trump is intent on aligning with Putin, then I'm not convinced that the transatlantic relationship which has been the foundation of the European security order since 1945 will be saved. If Trump does turn his back on NATO and the EU to force America into an unholy alignment with Putin, Europe will need to step forward to stand on its own"
"The Europeans are realizing the magnitude of that task now," Davis pondered. "The alternative is simply to follow Trump's path and capitulate to Moscow, surrendering Eastern and Central Europe to a Russian sphere of influence. Make no mistake, Putin is playing Trump for a fool and the United States will suffer greatly as a result. The only winners so far are Putin, and Xi."
Unfortunately, the spiteful and eccentric claims of Trump have become almost indistinguishable from those of China. Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson, recently warned Taiwan: "We warn DPP [Democratic Progressive Party] authorities that holding back the tide with a broom will only end up in self-destruction. We will come and get you, sooner or later". Wu continued, "It is a serious miscalculation of the situation, public opinion and the comparison of strength. Overreaching itself in such a way is extremely dangerous."
Yet this is how Trump routinely addresses countries like Panama or Greenland. "We will come and get you." What is the difference compared to China? Instead of reasserting calls for peaceful unification, China's military feels emboldened to issue direct threats against Taiwan. Indeed, Beijing must feel the coast is clearing rapidly for its geopolitical aspirations around the world, i.e. exporting authoritarianism and subjugating Taiwan.
Ryan Hass, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institute in the US, wrote, "Friends in Taiwan can be forgiven for feeling discomforted by [the] blowup between Trump and Zelenskyy. The incident laid bare Trump's indifference to defending democracy and pushing back against aggressors. Even so, I would caution against succumbing to fatalism. Trump is under pressure to end conflict in Ukraine. He is changing the narrative. In Trump's telling, Putin is not the villain, Russia is not the aggressor, and Ukraine is an obstacle to establishing a new concert of great powers to manage the international system."
However, Hass did admit: "Trump's rewriting of history is troubling. So too is the weak way in which previously principled US leaders caved to Trump's narrative and condemned Zelenskyy. This calls into question whether US Congressional leaders would speak up for Taiwan if Trump chooses not to. Even so, Ukraine is not Taiwan. The barriers to military invasion are much higher on Taiwan than in Ukraine. A 100- mile body of water is far different than a land border."
Furthermore, Hass continued, "Economically, Taiwan is indispensable to Trump's goals for an American industrial renaissance. Trump's goal of reindustrializing the US doesn't work without Taiwan. Yes, Taiwan needs the US, but the US also needs Taiwan. Trump knows this fact. There is a complementary division of labor between US tech companies and Taiwan's chip foundries that cannot be replaced. No question we are in a new world. Taiwan must bolster defense capabilities and resilience. Taiwan needs to be seen as a steady and reliable defender of the status quo. It also needs to foster quiet confidence through knowledge of its own leverage and indispensability."
Nonetheless, American allies in Asia are rightfully worried. One Japanese netizen posted the following comment on social media. "Russia is teaming up with China and North Korea. If the US starts to stand with Russia, it will raise doubts about how much we can trust the US-Japan Security Treaty. This is the same kind of doubt that NATO member countries have to the US."
The post, which quickly attracted more than 50,000 likes, continued: "'Japan doesn't have the cards.' 'Have you thanked the US military for stationing troops and protecting Japan for all this time?' 'With no resources, Japan should pay even more money to the US.' If such reports appear tomorrow, we should no longer be surprised. Perhaps the only option left is for Japan to pursue nuclear weapons. It will truly be a foolish and crazy thing to consider." As can be seen from such posts, Trump's erratic stance is multiplying confusion and concern.
What is Trump's approach to Asia? He has hosted Indian and Japanese leaders already, and there seems to be continuity with Biden's administration. Furthermore, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has engaged extensively with Asian counterparts. Yet, regarding American relations with China, Hass assessed: "Trump hasn't significantly rocked the boat with China thus far. He has shown personal respect for Xi Jinping and seems to be working to keep deal space open for when the two leaders meet in the coming months, even as his administration tightens US economic policy on China."
He acknowledged a school of thought that "Trump's expansionist ambitions, rupturing of transatlantic relations, embrace of Moscow's narrative on the Ukraine war, disruption and degradation of state capacity at home, etc., will have spillover effects on America's posture in Asia". Hass said he found himself drawn to this camp - "Trump's actions elsewhere will have spillover effects on America's capacity to protect and advance its interests in Asia," he thought.
Trump is creating a cascade of discontent around the world and at home. Indeed, there are reports that China and Russia are redirecting their intelligence services to recruit disgruntled and laid-off American federal employees working in national security fields. The US Naval Criminal Investigative Service said with "high confidence" that foreign adversaries were attempting to recruit federal employees and "capitalize" on mass layoffs implemented by Trump and his sidekick Elon Musk.
Trump said his administration was making a "decisive break from the past" on US foreign policy. He is indeed doing that, handing global initiative to China and Russia on a silver platter as he destroys alliances, abandons traditional principles and insults friends.