Climate change, flawed policies drive Pakistan towards food insecurity: Report

Islamabad [Pakistan], June 1 : In recent months, farmers across Pakistan have taken to the streets in protest following the government's decision to reduce its wheat procurement quota.
The heart of these protests lies in Sindh province, renowned for its early crop yields. However, even two months after the culmination of this year's wheat harvest, the deadlock persists, ARY News reported.
"The government had set a fixed rate for purchasing wheat and was supposed to distribute wheat bags directly to farmers. However, some officials within the food department are allegedly selling these bags to small-scale traders in exchange for kickbacks," revealed Akram Khaskheli, President of the Sindh-based Hari Welfare Association, in an interview with Dialogue Earth.
Khaskheli emphasised the repercussions of the government's mismanagement, warning of potential crop losses that could exacerbate food insecurity despite the wheat being available.
The government's significant procurement of wheat, usually around 20 per cent of production or 5.6 million tonnes, at a minimum support price plays a crucial role in ensuring market stability. However, the current crisis intertwines with climate change, thrusting Pakistan's agricultural sector into turmoil.
This crisis traces back to the massive floods that ravaged Pakistan from July to September 2022, inundating a third of the country's districts. A confluence of climatic factors, including a warming ocean, culminated in this extreme rainfall event, significantly impacting 15 per cent of Pakistan's cropland, as reported by ARY News.
In areas like Johi in the Dadu district of Sindh province, the aftermath of the floods lingered for several seasons. Talib Gadehi, a forty-four-year-old farmer who owns 350 acres of agricultural land with his brothers, recounted their struggles to cultivate the land for four consecutive seasons over two years.
"The collapse of the barrage affected an estimated 100,000 acres of land, rendering it barren. This situation has triggered mass migration from the area," Gadehi lamented.
These adverse conditions contributed to Pakistan's descent from the 99th position on the Global Hunger Index in 2022 to the 102nd in 2023.
According to a January 2024 analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organisation, poverty rates surged from 34 per cent in 2022 to 39 per cent in 2023, primarily due to elevated food prices, further straining vulnerable households' purchasing power. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification reported that over 10 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity between April and October 2023.
Wheat, constituting 72 per cent of Pakistan's staple food, plays a pivotal role in addressing food security and inflation. However, the caretaker government, installed ahead of the 2024 national elections, opted to import wheat in late 2023 to alleviate food shortages and soaring prices. Unfortunately, by the time the decision was made, the agricultural sector had rebounded, resulting in an oversupply and subsequent protests from farmers.
Muhammad Arif Goheer, head of the Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use section at the Global Climate Change Impact Studies Centre in Islamabad, justified the wheat import decision as a matter of affordability.
Despite domestic availability, high prices rendered the grain inaccessible to the poor. While the import drove down wheat prices significantly below the minimum support price, it sparked discontent among farmers anticipating a prosperous season after enduring two years of hardships.
"The ultimate solution to address food inflation and security lies in adopting precision agriculture and utilizing high-yielding seeds," Goheer asserted.
However, Khaskheli of the Hari Welfare Association highlighted the lack of assistance provided to farmers in adopting modern agricultural practices. "From start to finish, growers are left helpless. They encounter hurdles in accessing quality seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides, compelling them to sell their crops at below-market rates, ultimately impacting crop yields and food security," Khaskheli lamented.
The ongoing protests and Pakistan's dismal rankings on the Global Hunger Index underscore the critical role of agricultural policies in ensuring food security and social stability. While Pakistan has made commendable progress in wheat production over the years, ranking as the 7th largest producer globally, its average wheat yield remains modest compared to leading nations like New Zealand.
Bashir Ahmad, Director of the Climate, Energy, and Water Resources Institute under the Federal Ministry of National Food Security & Research, identified climate change as a growing challenge impeding productivity in the agricultural sector.
He elucidated how Pakistan's heavy reliance on irrigation, with 60 per cent to 70 per cent sourced from snowmelt and glacier melt, has been disrupted by global warming and climate change, affecting both the quantity and timing of water availability.
Changing rainfall patterns have further exacerbated water scarcity issues, with intense and short-duration rainfall leading to soil erosion and hampering rain-fed agriculture in regions like the Potohar and northern areas.
"Studies indicate a 6-15 per cent reduction in crop yields, particularly for rain-fed crops like wheat, due to changing rainfall patterns. This reduction does not account for the adverse impact of heatwaves and floods," Ahmad explained.
In cold regions like Gilgit Baltistan, early maturation of fruits like oranges due to inadequate chilling hours has become a prevalent issue. Moreover, reduced irrigation water supply has forced increased reliance on groundwater in Punjab, contributing to declining groundwater levels, according to the report.
Zafar Ali Khokhar, Director of Agronomy at the Wheat Research Institute Sakrand, Sindh, proposed that local seed varieties could potentially double current production levels. However, challenges persist in ensuring the availability of quality seeds.
"Our institute has developed varieties yielding 80 maunds of wheat per acre, proven through consistent usage. However, the responsibility of ensuring adequate seed supply lies with responsible manufacturers. Presently, only 30 per cent of the total seed demand comprises high-yield wheat seeds provided by either the government or private companies," Khokhar disclosed.
Aamer Hayat Bhandara, a member of the prime minister's committee on agriculture yield improvement in 2023, stressed the urgency of action. "If previous governments failed to prioritize providing modern techniques, technology, and accessibility to farmers, despite their utmost importance in the agriculture sector, it is imperative to focus on these aspects now," Bhandara emphasised.
The intertwined challenges of climate change, flawed policies, and inadequate support mechanisms for farmers are pushing Pakistan towards food insecurity. Urgent and concerted efforts are needed to address these issues comprehensively and safeguard the country's agricultural sector and food security, ARY News reported.