Domestic steel sector to outpace real GDP growth, boosted by urbanisation and capex: Anand Rathi report
Sep 20, 2024
New Delhi [India], September 20 : The domestic steel sector growth will outpace the country's real GDP growth in the coming years, says a report by Anand Rathi.
The growth in domestic steel will be driven by rapid urbanisation and an increase in public-private capital expenditure (capex). The sector is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-10 per cent from the financial year (FY) 2024 to FY30, surpassing GDP growth during this period.
By the financial year 2030, India is forecasted to produce 210-220 million metric tonnes of steel, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 190-210 million tonnes.
The report adds that the Indian steel industry has shown resilience despite the global headwinds affecting the commodity sector.
In contrast to China's sluggish steel demand, India's consumption has been fuelled by increasing investment in infrastructure, construction, renewable energy, and the automobile sector.
The government's strong focus on infrastructure, evidenced by a 15 per cent capex outlay CAGR in the Union Budget over the past 13 years, has been a key driver behind the sustained growth of steel demand.
In the first eight months of calendar year 2024 alone, crude steel production in India rose 7.4 per cent year-on-year to 98.7 million tonnes, making India the fastest-growing steel producer globally.
As of May 2024, India holds an 8 per cent share of the global steel market, consistently improving its position as the second-largest steel producer in the world surpassing Japan in 2018.
The report highlights that India is at an inflection point in its urbanisation journey, similar to China in the early 2000s and other developed nations in the 1960s and 70s.
By 2030, India's urban population is expected to reach 590 million, driving increased spending on urban infrastructure thereby boosting the steel demand.
The National Steel Policy (NSP) aims to expand crude steel installed capacity to 300 million tonnes by FY30-31 to meet this growing demand.
As India moves closer to becoming a USD 5 trillion economy, steel consumption is set to rise, underpinned by infrastructure projects and urbanization efforts.
The report also notes that while China's steel exports are projected to reach 120 million metric tonnes in CY24 due to weak domestic demand, India's steady growth and investment climate ensure a more favourable outlook for the steel industry.
