Erdogan and his ministers step up their bellicose rhetoric against Greece and Cyprus

By John Solomou
Nicosia [Cyprus] December 26 : Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is facing a difficult election next year, and his ministers in a chorus, have been making bellicose statements in recent months against Ankara's supposed NATO ally Greece and the Republic of Cyprus.
In a speech in Samsun on December 11 Erdogan, boasting about the start of production of Turkey's short-range ballistic missiles called "Tayfun" (typhoon), clearly threatened to launch them against Greece unless "it stays calm", as he said, and added:
"Now we have started to make our own missiles. Of course, this production scares the Greeks. When you say 'Tayfun,' the Greeks get scared and say: 'It will hit Athens.' Well, of course, it will... If you don't stay calm, if you try to buy arms from here and there, from America and militarize the islands, a country like Turkey will not be a bystander. It must do something."
For decades, Ankara and Athens have been at odds over a myriad of issues. In the 20th century, the two countries fought two wars and, on several occasions, came to the brink of war, including their maritime boundaries, overlapping claims to their continental shelves and the occupation of the northern part of Cyprus since 1974. Additionally, they have engaged in an arms race that clearly undermines their economy.
In recent months, President Erdogan has focussed on what he calls the "militarization" of 13 out of 23 Aegean islands close to Turkey's coastline and on demands for their demilitarization. Ankara claims that Greece is arming the islands in violation of international agreements, while Athens insists it is protecting its territory from Ankara's repeated threats.
Greek and Turkish fighter jets regularly engage in aerial battles at close range (dogfights) over the Aegean islands, raising tension between the two nations and there are fears that an accident could happen that could spark a war.
Erdogan in a recent speech, in no uncertain terms, threatened Greece with the war over this question. He said: "The islands you occupy do not bind us. We will do what is necessary when the time comes. As we say, we can come suddenly one night."
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed the militarization of the islands violates long-standing international treaties and added: " Turkey is determined to discuss and challenge the sovereignty of the islands if Greece does not stop the violations."
For their part, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Defence Minister Hulusi Akar repeatedly warned Greece to stop militarizing the Aegean islands, otherwise Ankara "will take the necessary steps on the ground."
It is noted that State Department Spokesman Ned Price, took the side of Greece in this dispute when he stated that "Greece's sovereignty over these islands is not in question. The US calls on countries, including our allies, to respect territorial integrity and sovereignty and avoid actions that inflame tensions."
Another point of serious friction between Ankara and Athens is the Turkish- Libya maritime demarcation agreement signed in November 2019 with the Tripoli government -one of the two rival governments in Libya- which runs close to the Greek island of Crete.
This was followed by the signing on October 3 of a preliminary agreement between Ankara and the Tripoli government on oil exploration by Turkey off the coast of Libya, which does not specify if surveys will take place near Crete.
Reacting to the agreement, Greek Foreign Minister Nicos Dendias said that "Ankara is exploiting the turbulent situation in Libya to further destabilize the security in the Mediterranean region and establish regional hegemony. "
The Turkish-Libyan agreement was described by the US State Department as provocative and unhelpful. For its part, the European Union supported the position taken by Greece and said the deal violated the law of the sea and infringed upon the sovereign rights of third states.
In recent years the Eastern Mediterranean has become an energy hot spot with big gas discoveries found in Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. These three countries have signed preliminary agreements envisaging cooperation in the hydrocarbons sector, causing the wrath of Ankara which feels it is excluded from the exploitation of gas reserves in the area.
Last Wednesday, Cyprus announced the discovery of 2 to 3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in exploratory drilling block 6 of its Exclusive Economic Zone. The find was made by a consortium of Italy's Eni and France's TotalEnergies. In August, an estimated 2.5 Tcf of natural gas was discovered in another part of Cyprus EEZ.
On Friday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Tanju Bilgic, claimed that these hydrocarbon activities were carried out unilaterally by the Greek Cypriot Administration (as Ankara describes the internationally recognised government of Cyprus) without the consent of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC is recognized only by Turkey), which is a co-owner of all natural resources on and around Cyprus, issued a statement saying:
"It is out of the question for any country, company, or ship to conduct hydrocarbon exploration or exploration activities within the Turkish continental shelf in the East Mediterranean without our consent. Turkey will continue to resolutely protect both its own and TRNC's rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and will continue to support the TRNC's hydrocarbon activities in the days and years ahead."
By playing tough with Greece, Erdogan is pandering to Turkish voters in the face of the difficult elections he is facing next June. In the past, he played artfully the national security card to his advantage and recently he has attempted to do this, with the deadly bombing in Istanbul. There, he tried to use the bombing as a pretext to strike at Kurdish targets in Syria and launch an invasion there. Apparently, however, he did not get the green light he needed from the Russians and now he focuses his attention on the Greeks, which the Turks view as one of their main enemies. But an accident can happen in one of the innumerable dogfights over the Aegean and a real war could break between the two countries, which are supposed to be NATO allies.