Fitch affirms Sri Lanka at CCC amid debt service challenges
Jun 16, 2021
Hong Kong, June 16 : Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at CCC.
It said the island nation's CCC rating reflects a challenging foreign-currency sovereign external debt repayment burden over the medium term, low foreign exchange reserves and rising government debt that gives rise to sustainability risks.
External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months following bilateral loan disbursements and expectation of a forthcoming IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation.
Nevertheless, said Fitch, Sri Lanka's medium-term debt service challenges are substantial and pose risks to the sovereign's debt repayment capacity.
A total of about USD29 billion in foreign currency debt obligations are due between now and 2026 against foreign exchange reserves of USD4.5 billion as of end-April.
Fitch projected Sri Lanka's foreign exchange reserves to remain at about USD 4.5 billion by end-2021 before declining to USD3.9 billion by end-2022.
The current account deficit is likely to widen to 2.8 per cent in 2021 and narrow to 2.1 per cent of GDP in 2022. The forecasts assume remittances will remain resilient in 2021-22 and tourism is likely to recover only from 2022.
Sri Lanka's economy contracted by 3.6 per cent in 2020 as a result of Covid-19 pandemic. Fitch projected growth of 3.8 per cent in 2021, down from an earlier forecast of 4.9 per cent, in light of a recent surge in virus cases.
