"Harris' Indian roots an advantage; Trump's voters believe in him," Professor at Brookings on US Presidential polls

By Arunesh Sinha
Washington DC [US], October 12 : With just three weeks left for the critical US Presidential Polls, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are engaged in a fight to the finish. In the crucial swing state Pennsylvania, Trump addressed two rallies earlier this week while Harris had former President Barack Obama trying to close out the state for the Democrats. All polls are showing the race to be extremly tight with narrow leads projected for both leaders in different polls.
Cameron Kerry, professor at Brookings Institution, believes that it is going to be an "extremely tight race" and any of the two -- Harris or Trump -- could end up winning the race.
In an interview with ANI, Professor Kerry also acknowledged that the game was all the way in favour of Trump, but Kamala Harris has pulled it into a close contest with her performance in the second presidential debate helping her.
"It is a very close race. I think a Wall Street Journal poster put it well said; 'Even, Steven, tight, tight, tight'. But it has been that way all along. And Kamala Harris brought it back from a race that was starting to go Trump's way. But America has been extremely polarized politically, fighting over very narrow grounds between the two parties, and that continues to be the case. It is anybody's race. But the debate, I think, had a positive impact. It showed that Trump, potentially the oldest American president elected ever, is not performing as well as he did in the past and made that an issue in the campaign," Kerry said.
Cameron Kerry is a professor and thought leader, currently Ann R. and Andrew H. Tisch Distinguished Visiting Fellow - Governance Studies, Center for Technology Innovation at the Brookings Institution. He is a thought leader on privacy, artificial intelligence, and cross-border challenges in information technology. Previously, he served as general counsel and acting secretary of the US Department of Commerce.
"But it is really anybody's to win in these final weeks. It's going to depend on the turnout. Who could motivate his or her voters to get out the best, generate the most excitement and have the best operations on the ground in those swing states," he said.
Kerry said that in addition to domestic issues like immigration, foreign policy is also an important factor in the elections, as there are different conceptions regarding America's role in the global order. Additionally, different communities have concerns with different issues such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Notably, Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Democrats claiming that the US has lost its respect on the global stage under the Biden administration. He claims that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine hadn't even started in the first place had he been in office, and has vowed to end both conflicts before taking over the White House.
"Yeah, people vote primarily on the perception of their own needs and the economy and domestic issues like immigration and others. But foreign policy is certainly a factor both in general, in perceptions of leadership, of safety. It also affects particular issues for some communities. We see that with the issues surrounding the war in Gaza and now in Lebanon. Issues in Ukraine as well. But I think a lot goes to conceptions of how America needs to operate in the world. And part of the way that Donald Trump has projected strength is for America to go it alone. And the Biden administration and Kamala Harris to help to restore relationships. And America needs allies. So, I think there are different conceptions there of America's role," Professor Kerry said.
Referring to the issue of abortion, which has been a very polarising factor in US politics, the professor affirmed that the promise of abortion rights will help the Democrats, just like it did in the 2022 mid-term polls. He also reflected on the gender gap in American politics, where women are traditionally considered more supportive of the Democratic Party.
"It will clearly help Democrats. There has been a divide over that, a clear divide between the parties. Donald Trump is now trying to fuzz that. But that has a opposition to abortion and the repeal of the Roe v. Wade decision that established abortion as a constitutional right in America over 50 years ago has long been a tenet of the Republican Party. And now the dog has caught up with the car and Republicans don't know what's happening. And Donald Trump is trying to back off that position. But we saw in the 2022 elections that that had a major impact for Democrats. We have seen that it's been a strong appeal, " he said.
"There's long been a so-called gender gap in American politics where women vote more for Democrats. But the polling now shows those numbers have doubled compared to what they were when we first started talking about a gender gap 25 or 30 years ago," Kerry said.
The Roe v Wade judgement, which gave women in the US the right to abort a child, was overturned by the US Supreme Court in a landmark ruling in 2022. The Democrats have blamed Trump for putting 'conservative' judges in the top court, which paved the way for judgment.
While Biden and Harris have vowed to bring back the abortion rights, the Republicans have had opposing views on the matter. Trump's running mate, JD Vance, has registered even stronger opposition to abortion rights.
Being asked whether the multiple serious criminal cases against Trump, and what impact will have in voter's minds, the professor said that it won't affect Trump much, as his voters believe him "no matter what", but added that a section of voters might be concern a section of voters.
"Well, it's pretty extraordinary. Donald Trump, when he first ran in 2016, said, 'You know, I could go out and murder somebody on Fifth Avenue in New York and it wouldn't make a difference'. And he seems to be proving that out. Each time he's been indicted or convicted now, he's been able to raise money over it. His voters seem to believe in him no matter what. But, he is now the first former president of the United States ever convicted of a crime. And, that clearly bothers a lot of people in America and I think will bother some of the people in the middle. And certainly, we've seen, a lot of Republicans, including lots of people who served in Donald Trump's first administration, say he is not fit to hold office," the Professor said.
The former President faces 91 felony charges in connection with 4 criminal cases: Election subversion case, Capitol Riot case, Hush Money case and Classified Documents case. Trump, however, has denied all allegations and called all these cases 'political witchhunt'.
Kerry also believes that Kamala Harris' Indian roots will prove to be an advantage for her in the elections and she might end up getting "overwhelming" votes from the Indian-American community. He also praised the Indian-American community, saying it is an "increasingly important" community serving in key fields in the US.
"Look, I think it's an advantage, absolutely. I think people in the Indian-American community are excited. It's an increasingly important community. You look around the corporate executives, founders, people in sciences and technology. It has been a tremendously influential community," Kerry said.
"I think there's the prospect of having the first Indian-American president of the United States. This is a very exciting thing. You know, that said, no community is monolithic. There will be some who will support Kamala Harris. But I have not seen good data. But certainly my instincts, as somebody who's been involved in politics, is that an overwhelming number of Indian-Americans will vote for Kamala Harris," he added.
Former President Trump is eyeing a historic return to the White House after a bitter exit in 2020. If he wins, it would be the first time in over 100 years in US history, that a President would serve two non-consecutive presidential terms.
He is up against Vice President Harris, who is the first female, first Black, and first Asian American vice president. If elected president, the 59-year-old would become the first woman in history to become the US president.
The US presidential polls are scheduled to be held on November 5.