IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall
Apr 17, 2021
New Delhi [India], April 16 : India is expected to have normal monsoon rainfall this year, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
"Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96-104%)," the IMD said in its first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for monsoons.
Addressing a press conference through video link, Secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences M Rajeevan released the IMD's Long Range Forecast for the 2021 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall.
Director General of IMD M Mohapatra was also present.
Rajeevan said that quantitatively the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98 of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5 per cent.
He pointed out that neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean.
Some climate model forecasts indicate these conditions are likely to persist during the ensuing monsoon season.
He said that as sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and the Indian oceans.
Rajeevan said that La Nina conditions are likely to prevail only till May. "We will transition to ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions during monsoon. There is very little chance of El Nino conditions developing during monsoon months. There is a very small probability of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) negative condition developing during monsoon. So these conditions are likely to lead to a normal monsoon this year," he said.
