IMD's impact-based forecast warns of possible 'landslide': MoS Nityanand Rai highlights in Parliament on Wayanad

New Delhi [India], August 2 : In its impact-based forecast issued on July 29 too, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) included the possibility of "landslide and localized inundation and damage to vulnerable structures", Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai said on Friday.
Rai provided additional facts to both Houses of the Parliament on the landslide incident in the Wayanad district of Kerala considering the discussion held during the Calling Attention Motion in Lok Sabha on July 31.
All these additional facts have also been uploaded on the MPs portal with fact copies of IMD's early alerts issued from July 23 to July 29 (7-day forecast).
During the discussions held in the Rajya Sabha on 31st July 2024 on a Calling Attention Motion on the Wayanad Landslide incident raised by Congress leader KC Venugopal, it was inter-alia stated by the Union Home Minister Amit Shah that since July 23, 2024, IMD has been giving warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall in Kerala in its 7-day forecast.
He had mentioned that such heavy rainfall, in hilly areas like Wayanad, could also lead to other rainfall-induced disasters, such as landslides.
Therefore, Shah pointed out, the state government should have taken adequate preparedness measures, which include relocation of people to safe places. The Home Minister had also clarified that wherever state governments, such as Odisha and Gujarat, during cyclone warnings on IMD forecasts, have taken adequate preparedness measures, and causalities have been brought down to even zero.
Further, while the IMD forecast is sent to state governments, the Minister had said "It is available in the public domain."
After this discussion, the Chief Minister of Kerala gave a statement at a press conference in Thiruvananthapuram, questioning the statement of the Union Home Minister stating that between July 23 and July 28, the IMD didn't issue any orange alert for heavy rain in Kerala. On July 29 at 1 pm, an orange alert was only issued for the Wayanad district. The red alert and the possibility of heavy rain for Wayanad were announced at 6 am on July 30, after the landslide.
Kerala CM also questioned that on July 29 at 2 pm, the Geological Survey of India (GSI) issued a green alert for July 30 and 31, indicating a possibility of minor landslides or rock bursts. However, by that time, heavy rain had already occurred, and the landslide had taken place. He also said that the Central Water Commission did not issue any warnings for either IruvazhinjiPuzha or Chaliyar from July 23 to 29.
In this regard, MoS Rai submitted the additional facts in both houses of the Parliament that furnishes that "the primary responsibility for disaster management, adequate preparedness measures, rests with the state governments concerned as per the National Policy on Disaster Management".
Clarifying the Rainfall forecast and warning for Kerala issued by the, the additional facts pointed that "the IMD issues forecast every Thursday valid for next two weeks."
"In the forecast issued on 18th July 2024 (Thursday), IMD predicted above normal rainfall along the west coast region including Kerala during the week of 25th July to 1st August."
In the forecast issued next Thursday (25th July 2024), Rai mentioned in the additional facts "the IMD also indicate higher rainfall over Kerala with prediction of heavy rainfall during all the days of the week (25th July to 01st August)".
"In the daily weather bulletin issued by IMD valid for seven days, widespread rainfall (rainfall at most places) was predicted for the period of 0830 IST of 29th to 0830 IST of 30th July 2024. In its daily heavy rainfall warning issued by IMD five days before the occurrence of the sad event, it predicted continuously the occurrence of heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala during 0830 IST of 29th to 0830 IST of 30th July 2024 based on 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th and 29th," states the fact.
On 29th midday the IMD issued an Orange colour warning with prediction of heavy to very heavy rainfall (upto 20 cm) valid upto 0830 IST of 30th July, it stated.
The fact submitted by the MoS clearly mentioned that the "IMD issued impact-based forecast in colour codes and suggested actions alongwith the heavy rainfall warning."
"The impact-based forecast included the possibility of landslide and localized inundation and damage to vulnerable structures. The forecasts of the IMD are available in the public domain and copies are annexed."
"As mentioned by Chief Minister, Kerala himself, GSI has also given landslide warning for Wayanad on 29 July at 2 pm, while as per information furnished by SDMA of Kerala, a landslide occurred around 0217in the morning of 30 July, 2024," He informed the Parliament.
Hence, the MoS categorically mentioned "ample time was available with the State government of Kerala from the time orange alert given by IMD and landslide alert given by GSI, for shifting people to safe places."
The facts also reminded the landslide in Malappuram in August 2019 which was a significant event that drew attention to the geological sensitivity of the area.
"Prior to the landslide, this region was known for its geological vulnerability, but this incident highlighted the need for more detailed assessment and classification of such areas. After the landslide, efforts to enhance disaster risk assessment and mapping have been intensified, with greater emphasis on classifying geologically sensitive areas," Rai said in the additional fact.
"National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) has published a Landslide Atlas of India in February, 2023. NRSC Landslide Atlas and other regional studies have since included the Malappuram region in high-risk areas, acknowledging its susceptibility to landslides due to factors such as steep slopes, soil composition, and heavy rainfall. The aim of this classification is to improve disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies for such vulnerable areas," added the additional facts presented by Rai.