Imran Khan fights for survival amid opposition's 'no-confidence' move

Islamabad [Pakistan], March 17 : As discomfort between the powerful Army and Pakistan Prime Minister continues to grow over several issues, it appears that Pakistan's powerful military establishment is fed up with the Imran Khan-led government.
The economic mismanagement, poor governance, and Khan government's failed foreign policy in the last three and a half years are evident reasons for his anticipated ousting from power in the coming weeks.
The opposition parties have brought a "no-confidence" motion against the ruling Pakistan Tehreeki-Insaf (PTI) in the National Assembly on March 8. If all goes well, it is expected that the voting on the no-trust motion will take place in the last week of this month.
There are indications that Khan may fail to save his government this time as besides the military establishment's unhappiness, there is also better coordination between the opposition parties and Khan's key allies - Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P).
After failing to dislodge the Pakistan army-installed 'hybrid regime' of Khan, through street protests, the nine-member opposition alliance 'Pakistan Democratic Movement' (PDM) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) signed the no-confidence motion against the PTI government on March 8.
The originally 11-party grouping, PDM was formed in September 2020 with the sole purpose of dislodging Imran Khan from power through street protests and parliamentary maneuvering. But those attempts failed since the PTI government got support from the powerful military establishment. But things have changed now.
The civil-military relations are at a new low and there is growing tension between Khan and Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa. At a public gathering in Lower Dir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on March 10, Imran Khan admitted that General Bajwa advised him against calling names of opposition party members; the advice he refused to follow. In addition, he took an indirect jibe at the Army that "Allah did not allow us to be neutral as only animals are neutral", in context to the establishment's neutral stance in the no-confidence motion episode.
All these incidents have further weakened civil-military relations, besides the Khan government's incompetence of handling economic and foreign policy issues. These differences between PM Khan and General Bajwa have given an opening to the opposition parties to start a political movement against the PTI, with a possible nod from the army establishment. That is evident from the proactive participation of PML-N leader Shahbaz Sharif and PPP's Asif Ali Zardari in the attempt to oust the government.
Both leaders have been jailed and harassed by Imran Khan, with the establishment's support, since he came to power in August 2018. More importantly, PPP and PML-N have set aside their political differences - even if temporarily - to join hands to remove Khan from power. Even PTI's 'Jahangir Tareen' group has signaled its reluctance to support the Imran Khan government and endorsed PML-N's stance of removing PTI's chief minister Usman Buzdar in Punjab.
For PM Khan, it is a 'do-or-die' situation, and therefore, he is leaving no stone unturned to win over the disgruntled as well as opportunistic coalition partners, especially PML-Q and MQM-P, to save his government. So far, his allies have given mixed signals, some even in support of the opposition, as the negotiations are still underway between them.
Unless PM Khan heeds to their demands, or gives them some concessions such as the chief ministerial position to PML-Q in Punjab, it will be difficult for the PTI government to survive the no-confidence motion this time. Opposition parties hold 162 seats in the 342-member lower house, 10 short of the majority votes required to oust PM Khan. The combined strength of the PTI government and its allies in the national assembly is about 179.
The opposition seems confident that it has the required number needed to shunt Khan. The military establishment may sacrifice Khan on the pretext of gross "economic mismanagement" in the last three and a half years of the PTI rule. Khan has abjectly failed to handle Pakistan's economic crisis. He has appointed four finance ministers and about half a dozen finance secretaries since 2018.
He was also reluctant to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). After accepting the funding in 2019, the IMF programme was suspended because Pakistan failed to meet IMF conditions for it. The plan was again revived in November last year after the PTI government agreed to tougher conditions, including raising oil prices and electricity tariffs. But in an attempt to woo the public and counter the opposition's pressure, PM Khan cut domestic fuel costs and power rates, measures seen as putting the IMF program in jeopardy.
The recent political developments in Pakistan have caused great concerns in China, as the governance instability in the country will impact China Pakistan Economic Corridor activities in the coming months. As a result, the deputy head of Mission of Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, Pang Chunxue, met the PML-Q leadership on March 13 to discuss the current political situation and convey that China wants political and economic stability in Pakistan.
Clearly, the coming weeks are going to be very difficult for Imran Khan, as he faces a no-trust motion in the parliament. For the opposition alliance, this is possibly the last attempt to dislodge the PTI government before the 2024 general elections. For now, odds are in favour of the opposition.