In absolute terms, 2.5 crore more voter turnout recorded so far; women participating in huge numbers: SBI Research finds

New Delhi [India], May 20 : About 2.5 crore more Indian voters have exercised their franchise so far in the first four phases of the Lok Sabha polls, as compared to 2019, according to a SBI Research report, that cited Election Commission data.
45.1 crore voters, representing 66.95 per cent of turnout, franchised their votes in the first four phases. In percentage wise, the voter turnout is less than 68.15 per cent recorded after the first four phases of 2019 elections.
Constituency wise, absolute number of voter turnout revealed either an increase or status quo in 90 per cent of constituencies that have so far went to polls, relative to 2019 elections. An absolute increase in casting of votes jumped by more than 50,000 in 181 constituencies, whereas 156 constituencies exhibiting a near status quo (change in votes between -50,000 to +50,000), 36 constituencies saw declined by more than 50,000 votes.
Trends indicate that among states Karnataka accounted for the highest number of increase in voters in 2024 (35.5 lakh), followed by Telangana (31.9 lakh), and Maharashtra (20.0 lakh). Kerala accounted for most decline in number of voters in 2024 (5.3 lakh), followed by Manipur (3.4 lakh).
Women voters are again at the centre of gravity. The SBI Research asserts that for every 100 incremental male voters, there are 110 incremental female voters voting at any point of time in the first four phases.
"The net incremental share of women voters comes to 93.6 lakh, way above 84.7 lakh increase in their male counterpart participation, hinting at the cementing of women as the new Centre of Gravity for the Indian Politics...270 constituencies (out of 373) witnessed increased participation...," the report read.
Women centric schemes such as Ujjwala Yojana, Matru Vandana Yojana, and PM Awas Yojana which are having a significant ground level impact in rural areas, may have resulted in increased women participation, the report asserted.
Based on the trends so far in the first four phases, the SBI Research says it indicates that overall voter turnout for this Lok Sabha elections are expected to come around 67.5 per cent, which is almost equivalent to 67.7 per cent in 2019.
"This (estimate) is based on around 96 crore registered electors, of which 65.3 crore are expected to vote cumulatively in this election (projected men voters being 34.3 crore and women voters 31 crore)," it asserted.
If voter turnout increases significantly, it may reach up to 69 per cent and in case it goes downward, may fall up to 66 per cent.
So far in the four phase polling, 381 constituencies out of 543 have been covered, which is 70 per cent of the seats. By the end of fifth phase, the polls for which is underway on Monday (May 20), 80 per cent of India will have cast their votes.
"While the voter turnout ratio so far is less in 2024 as compared to 2019 in percentage terms, in terms of absolute voters there is a significant increase over already the high base in 2019."
Another interesting trend revealed in the SBI Research report is that the increase in absolute votes per constituency in the reserved constituencies was more than the unreserved category constituency.
General elections are being held in seven phases from April 19 to June 1 with votes for the 543 Lok Sabha seats to be counted on June 4.