In near term, silver likely to outperform gold, says Motilal Oswal
May 08, 2024
New Delhi [India], May 8 : Silver could outperform gold in a longer period, suggests a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL).
The report highlights that gold and silver returns have experienced a notable year-to-date increase of 13 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, from last cycle of the new year that starts with Akshaya Tritiya of 2023.
"In the past, supply and demand issues have not had a significant effect on gold prices, particularly when the market is experiencing more extreme uncertainty. Given the recent, strong increase in gold prices, some cool off in price cannot completely ruled out," said the report.
There are both positives and negatives for Gold prices at this juncture, lower than expected economic data points, rise in growth concerns, higher rate cut expectations in this year, geo-political tensions, concerns regarding rising debt, increase in demand and fall in US Yields could act as tailwinds for prices, the report added.
The report highlights that volatility in Gold always increases during the election years, this year more than 40 countries are lined up for elections, including US and India. Market participants always discount future events in advance, like an early rate cut by Fed, hence any black swan event could further support the prices in the future.
So far this year, Gold and Silver have seen a fantastic rally since the start of this year and geopolitical tensions and Fed monetary policy are the two main factors that triggered volatility in bullion market.
According to a recent World Gold Council report, the rate of central banks purchasing gold did not slow down in Q1 FY24 with 290 tonnes being added to official holdings.
The report also highlights that while demand for bars and coins increased by 3 per cent year over year to 312 tonnes, it has decreased for jewellery by 2 per cent year over year to 479 tonnes worldwide. Central banks, led by Turkey, China, and India, increased their demand for gold by a record amount in the first quarter.
According to the report by Motilal Oswal, since the start of the year, imports of Gold and Silver have been to tune of more than 150 tonnes and 3000 tonnes respectively. This jump in imports could be on the back of CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) deal with UAE under the benefit of 1 per cent TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) or the import duty benefits that the market participants get under other bullion articles.
