Interest rates nearing peaks but major central banks will delay monetary policy easing: Report
Jan 27, 2023
New Delhi [India], January 27 : Key policy interest rates are nearing their peaks globally but major central banks will delay their respective monetary policy easing, said S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The global financial market information and analytics services provider expects the policy rates to remain in place throughout 2023 in order to dampen overall inflation expectations.
"With inflation rates still well above targets and credibility at stake, major central banks will continue to tighten policies in early 2023," it said in a statement this week.
In its forecast, policy interest rates are assumed to reach highs of 5.00 per cent in the US, 4.75 per cent in Canada, 4.25 per cent in the UK, and 3.50 per cent in the eurozone by March.
The US central bank's policy rate is now in a target range of 4.25-4.50 per cent, the highest level in 15 years. Notably, it was near zero in the early part of 2022.
The next US monetary policy meeting is scheduled for January 31 and February 1.
The easing in monetary policy rates is expected in 2024 and 2025 and it believes it will bring these rates down to their long-run neutral levels.
"(However) Monetary easing will begin in 2023 in Emerging Europe and Latin America, where central banks raised interest rates earlier and more sharply as inflation surged in 2021," it noted as a rider.
On recession, it said despite mild recessions in Europe and North America, the global economy will avert a recession.
"With an acceleration in mainland China and sustained moderate growth in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa, world real GDP is expected to increase 1.9 per cent in 2023, a pace that falls short of potential," said Sara Johnson, executive director, of Economic Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Monetary tightening will succeed in cooling inflation, allowing interest rates to retreat and global growth to pick up to a 3.0 per cent pace in 2024 and 2025," said Johnson.
