Monsoon rain between June-September over country to be 102 pc of LPA, says MoES
Jun 01, 2020
New Delhi [India], June 1 : The monsoon rainfall between June and September over the country will be 102 per cent of its long-period average (LPA), said the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) on Monday.
"The conditions are becoming more favourable for a good monsoon. So quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall between June and September over the country will be 102 per cent of its long-period average, which means 88 cm," said Dr Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, during a press briefing here.
Giving region-wise break up for the same, the official informed that the season's rainfall is likely to be 107 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 103 per cent of LPA over central India, 102 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 96 per cent of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of +- 8 per cent.
All India forecast will have a model error of 4 per cent, he said.
In a release, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) said that rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2020 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be 'normal' (96 per cent to 104 per cent of the long-period average (LPA)).
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102 per cent of the LPA with a model error of +-4 per cent, the Ministry said.
The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103 per cent of its LPA during July and 97 per cent of LPA during August, both with a model error of +- 9 per cent.
According to the Ministry, Currently, ENSO Neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and Neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. Global models are indicating cool ENSO conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with some possibility of development of weak La Nina conditions in the later part of the monsoon season.
It further stated that the probability forecasts suggest a very low probability (only 5 per cent) for monsoon rainfall to be deficient. On the other hand, it suggests a very high probability for monsoon rainfall to be normal (41 per cent).
In another release, the Ministry said the well-marked low-pressure area over Southeast and adjoining East-central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area concentrated into a 'depression' over east-central and adjoining southeast the Arabian Sea and "lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today the 1st June 2020 near latitude 13.0°N and longitude 71.4°E about 370 km southwest of Panjim (Goa), 690km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 920 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat)."
"It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards initially till June 2 morning and then recurve north-northeastwards and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad, Maharashtra) and Daman during the evening/night of June 3," said the Ministry.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deputy Director-General Anand Kumar Sharma on Monday said the monsoon has arrived in Kerala today and added that the coastal areas up to south Gujarat will witness rain till June 4.
