Pakistan's population projected to reach 400 million by 2092: UN Report

New York [US], July 12 : A key report by the United Nations has highlighted significant demographic changes for Pakistan, projecting a substantial population increase over the coming decades, ARY News reported.
According to the UN's World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan's population, currently over 245 million, is expected to continue growing until 2054, potentially peaking at 404.68 million by the year 2092.
The report indicates that Pakistan's population will surpass Indonesia's by 2048, reaching 331.29 million at that time. Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan experienced an average annual population growth rate of 2.40 per cent. For a population exceeding 220 million, this growth rate translates to an increase of approximately 5.28 million people per year.
Pakistan's high birth rate, which stands at 22 births per 1,000 people, contributes significantly to its population growth. The report points out, "Very few women use any type of birth control in Pakistan, and the surging population can put too much pressure on water and sanitation systems, result in millions of unemployed people, and overwhelm health and education systems."
Since gaining sovereignty in 1947, Pakistan's population has increased markedly. This growth is partly due to the influx of people who moved their families and businesses to the area, feeling more comfortable settling in the newly established country. Compared to other nations in the region, Pakistan's growth rate is about 2.1 per cent higher, as reported by ARY News.
The report predicts that if the current growth trend continues, Pakistan's population could double what it was in 2001 within the next 35 years. Given the significant population increase observed over the past decade, this projection does not seem far-fetched. Although the current growth rate is close to 2 per cent, it is expected to decrease to less than 1 per cent by 2050, at which point Pakistan's population is projected to exceed 300 million.
Globally, the report states that the world population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. It is then expected to decline to approximately 10.2 billion, which is 700 million lower than projections made a decade ago. These findings were revealed in the report published by the UN to coincide with World Population Day.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasised the importance of accurate population data, stating, "Our rich human tapestry is only as strong as its weakest thread. When data and other systems work for those on the margins, they work for everyone. This is how we accelerate progress for all."
The 28th edition of the World Population Prospects (WPP), published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to the year 2100. The WPP is crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.
The report highlights that global fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average compared to around 1990. In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size. Nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now have "ultra-low fertility," with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation. The total population of this group is projected to decline by 14 percent over the next thirty years. Additionally, the average age of the global population is increasing. By the late 2070s, the number of persons aged 65 years or older is projected to surpass the number of persons under 18.
This shift is partly due to the overall increase in life expectancy and decrease in mortality rates over the past three decades. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17 percent in 1995. While population growth or decline is occurring mainly in high-income countries, rapid population growth will continue in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Specifically, very rapid growth is projected in Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, and Somalia, with their total populations expected to double between 2024 and 2054.
This population growth will increase demand for resources, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Combined with poorly managed urbanisation and rising living standards, this will exacerbate environmental impacts. Climate change, a significant challenge, affects these countries the most, where many people rely on agriculture, and food insecurity is prevalent, according to ARY News.
In countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, the population is also expected to increase through 2054 and could potentially peak in the second half of the century or later. Central to population and development is the "recognition that women's sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights are cornerstones of sustainable development," said Secretary-General Guterres.
Particularly in low-income countries, early pregnancies remain a significant challenge. In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under the age of 18. Of these, some 3,40,000 were born to children under 15, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
Investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and increasing the ages of marriage and first childbearing in countries where these occur early, will yield positive outcomes for women's health, educational attainment, and labour force participation, according to WPP data. These efforts will also contribute to reducing the scale of investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind, the report added, as ARY News reported.