Premature to talk about US recession based on one-month data: RBI Governor

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 : At the post-monetary policy press briefing, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that GDP growth figures in the US are "doing well" and it was not right to rush to a conclusion that the country was slowly slipping into recession.
"US economy has been doing well. One can't rush to a conclusion based on one month of unemployment data," Das told reporters on being asked how he looked at the US recession fears that have emanated after the recent weak unemployment in the US.
Das said it would be "premature" to talk about the recession in the US.
From the RBI's point of view, the Governor added they will be watchful of all incoming data -- both from domestic and external fronts.
He reiterated that one cannot forecast the possibility of a slowdown or a recession based on one month's unemployment data. He added one has to wait and see other data emerging from the US.
There has been a strong sell-off in the financial market, though variably, across the globe this week, including in India. The market downturn was triggered after a softer-than-expected jobs report from the United States, which revealed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent and a mere addition of 114,000 non-farm payroll jobs in July. Unemployment and job creation data, key indicators for gauging economic health, raised alarms about a potential slowdown in the US.
Later in the press conference, responding to a question on rising futures and options trading volume in India, and fears that hard-earned financial savings are flowing into speculative activities, the Governor said, it is not as if all savings are going into F&O.
He added that the issue was discussed in the "early warning group" mechanism of the regulators.
"I am not suggesting that people should not go in equity and put their money in deposits. What I am saying is this could create a liquidity management issue for banks," he explained.
He said he was only warning of potential liquidity risks of banks. He added banks need to capitalise on their branch network and raise deposit levels to sustain credit growth.
India's financial market regulator SEBI has been worried about the speculative activities happening in the derivatives segment, which go against the purpose for which those asset categories were introduced.
As per definition, derivative trading is a complex financial practice that involves buying and selling contracts, called derivatives, that derive their value from an underlying asset. The underlying asset can be anything from stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, indices, exchange rates, or even interest rates.
Late last month, SEBI floated a consultation paper, proposing several additional norms, on the pretext that they would help reduce speculative trading and, in turn, would bring about market stability.
A study conducted by SEBI in January 2023, titled "Analysis of Profit and Loss of Individual Traders Dealing in Equity F&O segment", found that 89 per cent (9 out of 10) individual traders in the equity F&O segment incurred losses.
The same study also highlighted that trading in derivatives has proliferated beyond tier 1 cities in the past 3-4 years.
Meanwhile, coming back to the three-day monetary policy meeting that concluded on Thursday, the RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent. This marks the ninth consecutive time the central bank has opted for stability in its monetary policy.
The decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBI's target range. The central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to ongoing food inflation and other economic factors.
Governor Das emphasized that the RBI remains vigilant regarding inflationary pressures and will take necessary actions to maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic recovery. The monetary policy committee decision reflects a balanced approach, aiming to control inflation without stifling growth.