Quarterly earnings, inflation, FII to drive key equity benchmarks next week

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], May 14 : The Indian stocks market surged by at least one per cent during the last week. Among the gainers during the week, automobile and banking stocks were the ones with the highest gains in the domestic market.
During last week, the stocks were on wait-and-watch mode during two incidents: First, when the US inflation was being released and then on Friday, when the domestic retail inflation was being declared.
On Friday, The S&P BSE Sensex was gained 123.38 points or 0.20 per cent to 62,027.90. The Nifty 50 index added 17.80 points or 0.1 per cent to 18,314.80.
The rate of inflation rose in the US was 4.9 per cent in April, slightly lower than the 5 per cent recorded in March, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Though it is declining, the inflation numbers in the US are still way above the 2 per cent target.
The US monetary policy committee, seeking to achieve inflation at the rate of 2 per cent in the long run, hiked the key interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5.0-5.25 per cent at its latest two-day review meeting held during May 2-3.
India's foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 7.196 billion to USD 595.976 billion in the week that ended on May 5, data released by the Reserve Bank of India showed on Friday. Prior to the May 5 ended week, the reserve rose by USD 4.532 billion to USD 588.780 billion.
Coming back to RBI's latest data, India's foreign currency assets, the biggest component of the forex reserves, rose by USD 6.536 billion to USD 526,021 billion.
Gold reserves during the latest week rose by USD 659 million to USD 46.315 billion.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth Rs 7,750.35 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,261.98 crore. However, in the month till now, FIIs purchased equities worth Rs 13,278.11 crore and DIIs sold equities worth Rs 3,997.23 crore, according to RBI data.
India's industrial production (IIP) growth falls to 5-month low of 1.1 per cent in March. The tepid performance of the power and manufacturing sectors was primarily responsible for this decline, with the manufacturing sector growing only 0.5 per cent compared to 1.4 per cent a year ago. Power generation declined by 1.6 per cent in March 2023, compared to a growth of 6.1 per cent last year.
The factory output growth, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), was 2.2 per cent in March 2022.
Falling for the second straight session, the local currency -- rupee -- depreciated by seven paise to 82.16 against the US dollar on May 12, as a strong greenback overseas weighed on investor sentiments.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart, said, "The recently concluded Karnataka election has resulted in Congress emerging as the clear winner. While this may have a sentimental negative impact on the market, it is important to note that much of this outcome has already been factored in by investors. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will witness a significant reaction from the market in response to this development."
Santosh Meena said, "The Nifty has been displaying a consistent upward trend since April, successfully surpassing the significant resistance level of 18200. Currently, the key resistance level stands at 18440, which represents a 78.6 per cent retracement of the previous decline from 18888 to 16828."
"While there is a possibility of some profit-taking around this level, a break above it could potentially lead to further gains towards the 18630-18690 range," he said.
He said, similarly, the Banknifty has also surpassed the key hurdle of 43500, with the critical resistance zone between 43900-44150.
Investors should expect only modest returns in 2023 but, beyond this year, returns will turn attractive, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
The corporate earnings' announcement last week was better than expected.
Auto stocks are gaining more and more while gaining confidence of investors. Last month, sales of automobiles in the local market grew in double-digits last month with most automakers ramping up supplies to dealerships, amid sustained consumer demand.