Taiwan's Han Kuang drills begin amid rising China tensions

Taipei [Taiwan], April 6 : Taiwan's largest annual military drills, the Han Kuang exercises, started on Saturday with experts suggesting that the extended 14-day war games are a response to China's growing "gray zone" actions and its potential for launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, as reported by Taipei Times.
According to Taipei Times, this year's drills began with continuous computer-simulated war games, utilizing the US-made Joint Theater Level Simulation platform. The live-fire segment of the exercises will take place from July 9 to 18.
The drills aim to simulate scenarios where Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) exercises escalate into an attack on Taiwan, according to Major General Tung Chi-hsing, director of the Ministry of National Defense's joint operations planning division.
The Han Kuang exercises would also replicate PLA "gray zone" activities, which are provocative or aggressive actions that stop short of open conflict, Tung explained at a news conference on Wednesday, as cited by Taipei Times.
Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Wang Ting-yu stated on Friday that the public once believed China's first strike would likely be a missile attack. However, it is now more realistic to expect a first strike involving maritime militia vessels, sand dredgers, and drones--tools commonly used in "gray zone" operations.
Wang, a member of the legislature's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, emphasized that the military must be prepared to handle situations beyond traditional force-on-force conflicts.
This includes responding to "gray zone" activities in accordance with international law, while preventing Chinese military drills from escalating into a full-scale invasion. He noted that such complex scenarios require extensive planning and simulation, making the war games more time-consuming, Taipei Times reported.
Su Tzu-yun, director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, shared similar views, suggesting that this year's Han Kuang drills were extended from eight days to two weeks to allow for more scenarios involving "gray zone" tactics.
According to Taipei Times, Su noted that when the PLA conducts naval and air patrols around Taiwan, it typically deploys six to ten warships. If each warship is equipped with vertical launching systems, around 500 land-attack cruise missiles could be launched within three minutes, striking targets across Taiwan.
This would leave defense forces with even less time to respond compared to a scenario where Dongfeng missiles were launched from China. Su emphasized that simulating such scenarios is vital, especially as PLA drills near Taiwan have increased in frequency in recent years.
Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo, during a recent legislative hearing, stated that this year's Han Kuang exercises would focus on a hypothetical PLA invasion in 2027.
The year 2027 would mark several significant milestones for China, including the 100th anniversary of the PLA's founding, the start of President Xi Jinping's fourth term, and the 12th year of his military reforms. The exercises will assess how the Ministry of National Defense would respond to a 2027 invasion and identify any weaknesses in the military's readiness and weaponry.