"Unless two belligerents want ceasefire, mediator can only help": Former Indian diplomat on NSA Ajit Doval's upcoming visit to Moscow

New Delhi [India], September 9 : Former Indian diplomat KP Fabian on Monday said that the two warring sides, Russia and Ukraine, should demonstrate sincerity and transparency in their efforts to achieve a ceasefire, as a mediator can only help towards a peaceful resolution, ahead of National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval's upcoming visit to Moscow.
Speaking to ANI, Fabian underscored the opportunity for India to contribute to the peace process, particularly during the BRICS NSA meeting scheduled to take place ahead of the BRICS Summit in Kazan from October 22-24.
"No war will end until the belligerents want to end it. You can take a horse to the stream, but can you make it drink? No. So unless the two belligerents want a ceasefire, a mediator can only help. A mediator cannot produce a ceasefire, you now? So let us see," said Fabian.
Ajit Doval's visit, according to Fabian, holds importance beyond just attending the meeting. He expects that Doval will discuss the Ukraine crisis with Russian NSA Nikolai Patrushev, his Russian counterpart, and other key officials.
"It is highly probable that Ajit Doval will discuss with his Russian counterpart, and also with other counterparts, how to end this war in Ukraine. There are two wars: one between Russia and Ukraine, and the other between Russia and NATO, led by the United States," Fabian said, emphasising the complexity of the conflict.
Fabian noted the extensive damage in Ukraine and stressed that ending the conflict is crucial. "We don't know how many thousands of human beings, whether military or civilian, have been killed. But we do know that a good part of Ukraine has been destroyed," he stated, adding that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message of peace remains relevant.
"This has to end. As Prime Minister Modi has been saying, this is not the era for war."
After the West's unsuccessful talks to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, India steps up for the job. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, NSA Ajit Doval is headed to Moscow for crucial talks on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.
As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on, several world leaders have pinned hope on India to broker peace. During his visit to Russia, Ajit Doval is likely to hold discussions regarding peace process in the region.
NSA Doval's visit follows PM Modi's trips to Russia and Ukraine where he held talks with both leaders and reiterated India's stance. PM Modi emphasized the need for peaceful resolutions of conflict and said, 'India is not neutral and we have chosen the side of peace'.
Notably, Russian President Putin on September 5 said that China, India and Brazil could mediate potential peace talks against Ukraine. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also mentioned India as a probable mediator after meeting Zelenskyy. India has walked a diplomatic tightrope throughout the conflict, reiterating its stance and inching towards a position to broker peace.
Fabian also remarked on the changing dynamics of Western support for Ukraine, citing diminishing financial and military aid. "There are also limits to what the West can do in terms of both money and weapons," he said, noting that countries like Germany and Hungary have scaled back their support.
With declining aid, Ukraine could be more inclined towards seeking a ceasefire, but as Fabian pointed out, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also declared his intent to pursue victory.
In the broader context of BRICS diplomacy, Fabian highlighted Putin's strategic efforts to secure a favourable declaration from the upcoming BRICS Summit. "President Putin is playing his cards exceedingly well... He wants a declaration after the summit to include words on this conflict that are favourable to Russia," Fabian said.
Doval's visit to Moscow is viewed as a multi-dimensional diplomatic effort. Foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdev highlighted that Doval's participation in the BRICS NSA meeting is just one aspect. He is also expected to carry a message from Prime Minister Modi to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This message could be pivotal in India's diplomatic approach to the Ukraine conflict.